A stochastic model of cyber attacks with imperfect detection

Rui Fang, Xiaohu Li

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

3 Scopus citations

Abstract

This paper introduces a cyber security model with imperfect detection, in which one attacker launches multiple attacks against the target with adjusted strength based on the previous attacking outcome. Several sufficient conditions leading to the usual stochastic order on the first time to observe a truly compromised target, to observe a successful attack and to compromise the target are developed, respectively. The probability for the target to be truly compromised before observing some number of successful attacks is proved to increase (decrease) in the attacking (defense) strength. Monte Carlo simulations are also conducted to empirically illustrate the theoretical results.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2158-2175
Number of pages18
JournalCommunications in Statistics - Theory and Methods
Volume49
Issue number9
DOIs
StatePublished - 2 May 2020

Keywords

  • First hitting time
  • hidden Markov chain
  • stochastic order
  • strong dominance
  • sub-probability transition matrix

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