A venerable tool for a new application: Using scenario analysis for formulating strategies for emerging technologies in emerging markets

Scenario analysis appears to be an ideal strategic planning tool for emerging technologies in emerging markets, yet it is in its infancy in the business world. This article is one of the first reports on applying this powerful tool to emerging technology business planning. Scenario analysis was incorporated into a PC-based simulation model and was applied by 11 teams consisting of company presidents, managers, and technical professionals to formulate a business strategy for wireless communications prior to its commercial launch. By incorporating key concepts from finance, market and competitive analysis, and management of technology, the model guides the user through a series of assumptions and decisions to arrive at a resilient strategy that maximizes the technology's chance of commercial success under a range of scenarios.