Algorithm for estimating reliability confidence bounds of multi-state systems

The paper suggests an effective approach for the estimation of reliability confidence bounds based on component reliability and uncertainty data for multi-state systems with binary-capacitated components. The approach presented is based on the implementation of the universal generating function technique. When compared with a pure Monte Carlo simulation approach, the universal generating function (UGF)-based approach is proven to be more effective due to a more precise reliability estimation and a considerably lower computational effort. Examples are given throughout the paper to illustrate the suggested approach.