An agent-based model for evaluating reforms of the National Flood Insurance Program: A benchmarked model applied to Jamaica Bay, NYC

Lars Tjitze de Ruig, Toon Haer, Hans de Moel, Philip Orton, W. J.Wouter Botzen, Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

8 Scopus citations

Abstract

Coastal flood risk is expected to increase as a result of climate change effects, such as sea level rise, and socioeconomic growth. To support policymakers in making adaptation decisions, accurate flood risk assessments that account for the influence of complex adaptation processes on the developments of risks are essential. In this study, we integrate the dynamic adaptive behavior of homeowners within a flood risk modeling framework. Focusing on building-level adaptation and flood insurance, the agent-based model (DYNAMO) is benchmarked with empirical data for New York City, USA. The model simulates the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and frequently proposed reforms to evaluate their effectiveness. The model is applied to a case study of Jamaica Bay, NY. Our results indicate that risk-based premiums can improve insurance penetration rates and the affordability of insurance compared to the baseline NFIP market structure. While a premium discount for disaster risk reduction incentivizes more homeowners to invest in dry-floodproofing measures, it does not significantly improve affordability. A low interest rate loan for financing risk-mitigation investments improves the uptake and affordability of dry-floodproofing measures. The benchmark and sensitivity analyses demonstrate how the behavioral component of our model matches empirical data and provides insights into the underlying theories and choices that autonomous agents make.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)405-422
Number of pages18
JournalRisk Analysis
Volume43
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 2023

Keywords

  • affordability
  • agent-based model
  • disaster risk reduction
  • dynamic adaptive behavior
  • flood insurance

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'An agent-based model for evaluating reforms of the National Flood Insurance Program: A benchmarked model applied to Jamaica Bay, NYC'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this