TY - JOUR
T1 - Comprehensive probabilistic assessment on capacity adequacy and flexibility of generation resources
AU - Ma, Jingjie
AU - Liu, Yikui
AU - Zhang, Shaohua
AU - Wu, Lei
AU - Yang, Zhile
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Authors
PY - 2023/2
Y1 - 2023/2
N2 - The increasing penetration of renewable energy in power systems has been playing an increasingly important role on power system reliability. However, traditional reliability indices of power systems, such as the loss-of-load probability and the expected unserved load, can only reflect the generation capacity adequacy but neglect its flexibility. Focusing on this issue, a set of comprehensive assessment indices that can accurately quantify both generation capacity adequacy and flexibility is proposed in this paper. Specifically, the proposed up-ward capacity shortage probability and expectation indices assess both generation capacity and ramp-up capacity shortages that may cause load loss, while the down-ward capacity shortage probability and expectation assess both base-load cycling capacity and ramp down capacity shortages that may cause renewable energy curtailment. A probabilistic assessment method with the time sequential probabilistic production simulation technology is developed to effectively calculate the proposed indices. This method can adequately consider uncertainty factors, such as the random outages of generating units and forecasting errors of loads and renewable energy, as well as dynamic operation statuses of generating units. Numerical examples are presented to verify the effectiveness of the proposed indices and the evaluation method.
AB - The increasing penetration of renewable energy in power systems has been playing an increasingly important role on power system reliability. However, traditional reliability indices of power systems, such as the loss-of-load probability and the expected unserved load, can only reflect the generation capacity adequacy but neglect its flexibility. Focusing on this issue, a set of comprehensive assessment indices that can accurately quantify both generation capacity adequacy and flexibility is proposed in this paper. Specifically, the proposed up-ward capacity shortage probability and expectation indices assess both generation capacity and ramp-up capacity shortages that may cause load loss, while the down-ward capacity shortage probability and expectation assess both base-load cycling capacity and ramp down capacity shortages that may cause renewable energy curtailment. A probabilistic assessment method with the time sequential probabilistic production simulation technology is developed to effectively calculate the proposed indices. This method can adequately consider uncertainty factors, such as the random outages of generating units and forecasting errors of loads and renewable energy, as well as dynamic operation statuses of generating units. Numerical examples are presented to verify the effectiveness of the proposed indices and the evaluation method.
KW - Comprehensive assessment
KW - Generation capacity adequacy
KW - Generation flexibility
KW - Probabilistic production simulation
KW - Renewable energy penetration
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85139076002&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85139076002&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.ijepes.2022.108677
DO - 10.1016/j.ijepes.2022.108677
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85139076002
SN - 0142-0615
VL - 145
JO - International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems
JF - International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems
M1 - 108677
ER -