Comprehensive probabilistic assessment on capacity adequacy and flexibility of generation resources

Jingjie Ma, Yikui Liu, Shaohua Zhang, Lei Wu, Zhile Yang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

11 Scopus citations

Abstract

The increasing penetration of renewable energy in power systems has been playing an increasingly important role on power system reliability. However, traditional reliability indices of power systems, such as the loss-of-load probability and the expected unserved load, can only reflect the generation capacity adequacy but neglect its flexibility. Focusing on this issue, a set of comprehensive assessment indices that can accurately quantify both generation capacity adequacy and flexibility is proposed in this paper. Specifically, the proposed up-ward capacity shortage probability and expectation indices assess both generation capacity and ramp-up capacity shortages that may cause load loss, while the down-ward capacity shortage probability and expectation assess both base-load cycling capacity and ramp down capacity shortages that may cause renewable energy curtailment. A probabilistic assessment method with the time sequential probabilistic production simulation technology is developed to effectively calculate the proposed indices. This method can adequately consider uncertainty factors, such as the random outages of generating units and forecasting errors of loads and renewable energy, as well as dynamic operation statuses of generating units. Numerical examples are presented to verify the effectiveness of the proposed indices and the evaluation method.

Original languageEnglish
Article number108677
JournalInternational Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems
Volume145
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 2023

Keywords

  • Comprehensive assessment
  • Generation capacity adequacy
  • Generation flexibility
  • Probabilistic production simulation
  • Renewable energy penetration

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Comprehensive probabilistic assessment on capacity adequacy and flexibility of generation resources'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this