TY - JOUR
T1 - Decision analysis applied to tunnel exploration planning. II
T2 - Consideration of uncertainty
AU - Karam, Karim S.
AU - Karam, Jad S.
AU - Einstein, Herbert H.
PY - 2007
Y1 - 2007
N2 - Tunnel exploration is a classic problem of decision making under uncertainty. This paper, Part II, dealing with the exploration problem, discusses the sources of uncertainty in tunnel exploration, and provides techniques to formally incorporate uncertainties into the exploration planning. Part I described the state of uncertainty in geology and exploration reliability using assigned probabilities. These probabilities are, however, uncertain. Construction costs are also uncertain. This paper presents tools with which the decision maker is able to assess the effects of these uncertainties on exploration decisions. Decisions are therefore made based on the value of collecting new, uncertain information through "virtual" exploration prior to actually exploring.
AB - Tunnel exploration is a classic problem of decision making under uncertainty. This paper, Part II, dealing with the exploration problem, discusses the sources of uncertainty in tunnel exploration, and provides techniques to formally incorporate uncertainties into the exploration planning. Part I described the state of uncertainty in geology and exploration reliability using assigned probabilities. These probabilities are, however, uncertain. Construction costs are also uncertain. This paper presents tools with which the decision maker is able to assess the effects of these uncertainties on exploration decisions. Decisions are therefore made based on the value of collecting new, uncertain information through "virtual" exploration prior to actually exploring.
KW - Case reports
KW - Decision making
KW - Risk management
KW - Tunnels
KW - Uncertainty principles
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U2 - 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2007)133:5(354)
DO - 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2007)133:5(354)
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:34247250843
SN - 0733-9364
VL - 133
SP - 354
EP - 363
JO - Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
JF - Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
IS - 5
ER -