Disease Spread Simulation to Assess the Risk of Epidemics during the Global Mass Gathering of Hajj Pilgrimage

Global mass gatherings can pose a risk for communicable disease outbreaks. In these events, millions of people gather at a specific location over a specific period of time from different regions of the world. Such settings have the potential to import and/or export infectious diseases to and from the host countries by international participants. Planning and preparing for public health risks at global mass gatherings is a challenging and complex process. Advanced risk assessment tools are important to identify potential disease outbreaks. In this study, we propose a computational epidemic simulation framework to simulate disease transmission from the arrival, to the departure of international participants in the global event of Hajj. Computational simulations of disease spread in global mass gatherings provide public health authorities with powerful tools to assess the implications of these events and to evaluate the efficacy of prevention and control strategies to reduce their potential impacts.