Dyat nets: Dynamic attention networks for state forecasting in cyber-physical systems

Nikhil Muralidhar, Sathappah Muthiah, Naren Ramakrishnan

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

17 Scopus citations

Abstract

Multivariate time series forecasting is an important task in state forecasting for cyber-physical systems (CPS). State forecasting in CPS is imperative for optimal planning of system energy utility and understanding normal operational characteristics of the system thus enabling anomaly detection. Forecasting models can also be used to identify sub-optimal or worn out components and are thereby useful for overall system monitoring. Most existing work only performs single step forecasting but in CPS it is imperative to forecast the next sequence of system states (i.e curve forecasting). In this paper, we propose DyAt (Dynamic Attention) networks, a novel deep learning sequence to sequence (Seq2Seq) model with a novel hierarchical attention mechanism for long-term time series state forecasting. We evaluate our method on several CPS state forecasting and electric load forecasting tasks and find that our proposed DyAt models yield a performance improvement of at least 13.69% for the CPS state forecasting task and a performance improvement of at least 18.83% for the electric load forecasting task over other state-of-the-art forecasting baselines. We perform rigorous experimentation with several variants of the DyAt model and demonstrate that the DyAt models indeed learn better representations over the entire course of the long term forecast as compared to their counterparts with or without traditional attention mechanisms. All data and source code has been made available online.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 28th International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, IJCAI 2019
EditorsSarit Kraus
Pages3180-3186
Number of pages7
ISBN (Electronic)9780999241141
DOIs
StatePublished - 2019
Event28th International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, IJCAI 2019 - Macao, China
Duration: 10 Aug 201916 Aug 2019

Publication series

NameIJCAI International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence
Volume2019-August
ISSN (Print)1045-0823

Conference

Conference28th International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, IJCAI 2019
Country/TerritoryChina
CityMacao
Period10/08/1916/08/19

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