TY - JOUR
T1 - Failing to replicate predicts citation declines in psychology
AU - Clark, Cory J.
AU - Connor, Paul
AU - Isch, Calvin
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2023 the Author(s).
PY - 2023
Y1 - 2023
N2 - With a sample of 228 psychology papers that failed to replicate, we tested whether the trajectory of citation patterns changes following the publication of a failure to replicate. Across models, we found consistent evidence that failing to replicate predicted lower future citations and that the size of this reduction increased over time. In a 14-y postpublication period, we estimated that the publication of a failed replication was associated with an average citation decline of 14% for original papers. These findings suggest that the publication of failed replications may contribute to a self-correcting science by decreasing scholars’ reliance on unreplicable original findings.
AB - With a sample of 228 psychology papers that failed to replicate, we tested whether the trajectory of citation patterns changes following the publication of a failure to replicate. Across models, we found consistent evidence that failing to replicate predicted lower future citations and that the size of this reduction increased over time. In a 14-y postpublication period, we estimated that the publication of a failed replication was associated with an average citation decline of 14% for original papers. These findings suggest that the publication of failed replications may contribute to a self-correcting science by decreasing scholars’ reliance on unreplicable original findings.
KW - citations
KW - failed replication
KW - metascience
KW - psychology
KW - scientific impact
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85164298017&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85164298017&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1073/PNAS.2304862120
DO - 10.1073/PNAS.2304862120
M3 - Article
C2 - 37428904
AN - SCOPUS:85164298017
SN - 0027-8424
VL - 120
JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
IS - 29
M1 - e2304862120
ER -