Forecasting construction project performance using Monte-Carlo simulation approach

Mohammad Ilbeigi, Gholamreza Heravi

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

2 Scopus citations

Abstract

Performance management is one of the most critical tasks carried out by construction organizations. This paper describes a model to forecast the project performance at completion and at any other interim future point. The model is based on eleven performance indices in two categories, product performance indices and project management performance indices. Forecasting is carried out on the basis of the current situation of the project and the performance of past projects of the organization, using the Monte Carlo simulation approach. By analyzing the results of the introduced model and comparing with actual data from a major infrastructure project, the performance and accuracy of the model was evaluated.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication54th Annual Meeting of the American Association of Cost Engineers International 2010
Pages766-787
Number of pages22
StatePublished - 2010
Event54th Annual Meeting of the American Association of Cost Engineers International 2010 - Atlanta, GA, United States
Duration: 27 Jun 201030 Jun 2010

Publication series

NameAACE International Transactions
Volume2
ISSN (Print)1528-7106

Conference

Conference54th Annual Meeting of the American Association of Cost Engineers International 2010
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityAtlanta, GA
Period27/06/1030/06/10

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