TY - GEN
T1 - Forecasting construction project performance using Monte-Carlo simulation approach
AU - Ilbeigi, Mohammad
AU - Heravi, Gholamreza
PY - 2010
Y1 - 2010
N2 - Performance management is one of the most critical tasks carried out by construction organizations. This paper describes a model to forecast the project performance at completion and at any other interim future point. The model is based on eleven performance indices in two categories, product performance indices and project management performance indices. Forecasting is carried out on the basis of the current situation of the project and the performance of past projects of the organization, using the Monte Carlo simulation approach. By analyzing the results of the introduced model and comparing with actual data from a major infrastructure project, the performance and accuracy of the model was evaluated.
AB - Performance management is one of the most critical tasks carried out by construction organizations. This paper describes a model to forecast the project performance at completion and at any other interim future point. The model is based on eleven performance indices in two categories, product performance indices and project management performance indices. Forecasting is carried out on the basis of the current situation of the project and the performance of past projects of the organization, using the Monte Carlo simulation approach. By analyzing the results of the introduced model and comparing with actual data from a major infrastructure project, the performance and accuracy of the model was evaluated.
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M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:78649273502
SN - 9781617388033
T3 - AACE International Transactions
SP - 766
EP - 787
BT - 54th Annual Meeting of the American Association of Cost Engineers International 2010
T2 - 54th Annual Meeting of the American Association of Cost Engineers International 2010
Y2 - 27 June 2010 through 30 June 2010
ER -