TY - GEN
T1 - From complicated to complex uncertainties in system of systems
AU - Efatmaneshnik, Mahmoud
AU - Nilchiani, Roshanak
AU - Heydari, Babak
PY - 2012
Y1 - 2012
N2 - In this discussion paper we demonstrate the catastrophic failure property of complex system of systems by simulation and an uncertainty propagation technique. Complex uncertainty cannot manifest in complicated systems that structurally lack significant circular causal dependencies. The applicability of flexibility engineering as a technique of not only harnessing but also exploiting uncertainty in system of systems is questioned and discussed for systems under complex uncertainties. Given the rapid and unintuitive uncertainty propagation in complex systems, and the impossibility of backward propagation to determine the sources of complex uncertainty, we note that flexibility engineering must be rethought and reframed for system of systems; simply because exercising new options can 1) unintentionally and dramatically increase the structural complexity, exposing the system more dangerously to possibility of a sudden global failure, and 2) be deployed in inappropriate situations and conditions that do not necessarily lead to added value promised by deployment of adaptive solutions.
AB - In this discussion paper we demonstrate the catastrophic failure property of complex system of systems by simulation and an uncertainty propagation technique. Complex uncertainty cannot manifest in complicated systems that structurally lack significant circular causal dependencies. The applicability of flexibility engineering as a technique of not only harnessing but also exploiting uncertainty in system of systems is questioned and discussed for systems under complex uncertainties. Given the rapid and unintuitive uncertainty propagation in complex systems, and the impossibility of backward propagation to determine the sources of complex uncertainty, we note that flexibility engineering must be rethought and reframed for system of systems; simply because exercising new options can 1) unintentionally and dramatically increase the structural complexity, exposing the system more dangerously to possibility of a sudden global failure, and 2) be deployed in inappropriate situations and conditions that do not necessarily lead to added value promised by deployment of adaptive solutions.
KW - Complex System of Systems
KW - Fragility
KW - Resileince
KW - Uncertainty propagation
KW - adaptive design
KW - flexibility engineering
KW - structural complexity
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U2 - 10.1109/SysCon.2012.6189537
DO - 10.1109/SysCon.2012.6189537
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:84861322259
SN - 9781467307499
T3 - SysCon 2012 - 2012 IEEE International Systems Conference, Proceedings
SP - 541
EP - 546
BT - SysCon 2012 - 2012 IEEE International Systems Conference, Proceedings
T2 - 2012 6th IEEE International Systems Conference, SysCon 2012
Y2 - 19 March 2012 through 22 March 2012
ER -