Global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of a coastal morphodynamic model using Polynomial Chaos Expansions

Mohammad Jamous, Reza Marsooli, Mahmoud Ayyad

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

5 Scopus citations

Abstract

Predicting coastal erosion requires an accurate morphodynamic model. XBeach has been widely adopted to simulate storm-induced coastal erosion. Because of the large number of model input parameters and their uncertainties, sensitivity analysis is a crucial step toward reliable results. This requires running a large number of computationally expensive simulations. Here, we adopt a computationally cost-effective approach based on the Non-Intrusive Polynomial Chaos Expansion method to quantify the sensitivity of XBeach to its input parameters. The method is applied to the coastal erosion event caused by Hurricane Sandy along the barrier islands of New Jersey in the United States. The results show a spatial variation of the model sensitivity with increasing boundary conditions. Parameters’ interaction is found to decrease as the magnitude of boundary conditions increases, causing a reduction in the nonlinearity of the model behavior, and consequently leading to a reduction in the uncertainty of the model output.

Original languageEnglish
Article number105611
JournalEnvironmental Modelling and Software
Volume160
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 2023

Keywords

  • Coastal erosion
  • Polynomial Chaos Expansions
  • Sediment transport
  • Sensitivity
  • Uncertainty
  • X-Beach

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