Introducing a tipping point measure in explaining disruptive technology

Roshanak Nilchiani, Christine M. Edwards, Anirban Ganguly

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

    3 Scopus citations

    Abstract

    Disruptive technology is a form of emerging technology whose arrival in the marketplace signifies the eventual displacement of the dominant technology in that sector. There is a critical need for a set of tools and theories that can predict the probability of success of disruptive technology at its early stages. This paper presents a tipping point measure for complex networks and uses a predator-prey model to exhibit the behavior of disruptive technology versus dominant technology. The paper tries to determine the potential speed of change of the dominant technology in the context of interaction with disruptive technology along with assessing when the current technology faces tipping point and therefore undergoes irreversible changes and potential collapse. The paper introduces a tipping point measure, a theoretical framework for disruptive technology dynamics, and a predator-prey model of the disruptive versus the mainstream market. A historical case study is then discussed and modeled to show the application of this methodology. The findings can aid an enterprise to develop requirements, identify, and in turn increase the possibility of the successful launch of disruptive technology.

    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationISSE 2019 - 5th IEEE International Symposium on Systems Engineering, Proceedings
    ISBN (Electronic)9781728117836
    DOIs
    StatePublished - Oct 2019
    Event5th Annual IEEE International Symposium on Systems Engineering, ISSE 2019 - Edinburgh, United Kingdom
    Duration: 1 Oct 20193 Oct 2019

    Publication series

    NameISSE 2019 - 5th IEEE International Symposium on Systems Engineering, Proceedings

    Conference

    Conference5th Annual IEEE International Symposium on Systems Engineering, ISSE 2019
    Country/TerritoryUnited Kingdom
    CityEdinburgh
    Period1/10/193/10/19

    Keywords

    • Disruptive innovation
    • Disruptive technology
    • Emerging technology
    • Innovation
    • Predator-prey model
    • Tipping point

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