Introducing a tipping point measure in explaining disruptive technology

Disruptive technology is a form of emerging technology whose arrival in the marketplace signifies the eventual displacement of the dominant technology in that sector. There is a critical need for a set of tools and theories that can predict the probability of success of disruptive technology at its early stages. This paper presents a tipping point measure for complex networks and uses a predator-prey model to exhibit the behavior of disruptive technology versus dominant technology. The paper tries to determine the potential speed of change of the dominant technology in the context of interaction with disruptive technology along with assessing when the current technology faces tipping point and therefore undergoes irreversible changes and potential collapse. The paper introduces a tipping point measure, a theoretical framework for disruptive technology dynamics, and a predator-prey model of the disruptive versus the mainstream market. A historical case study is then discussed and modeled to show the application of this methodology. The findings can aid an enterprise to develop requirements, identify, and in turn increase the possibility of the successful launch of disruptive technology.