Modeling and analysis framework for risk-informed decision making for FAA nextgen

Mark R. Blackburn, Art Pyster, Teresa Zigh, Richard Turner, Robin Dillon-Merrill

    Research output: Contribution to conferencePaperpeer-review

    3 Scopus citations

    Abstract

    This paper discusses an analysis and modeling framework that is being developed to support risk-informed decision-making for the Federal Aviation Administration Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). Discussions with over 60 stakeholders identified challenges for those responsible for planning, developing, and deploying NextGen capabilities. There are a confluence of technical and non-technical factors that are important to effectively roll out capabilities. People's internal knowledge is much greater than what is captured externally or formally. Additionally, this knowledge and the causal relationships to program factors are not formalized in a way to support this complex decision-making process. The paper describes a Bayesian network-based analysis and modeling framework with usage scenarios for calculating cost, schedule and benefit risks to support collaborative decision-making throughout the phases of the FAA's acquisition lifecycle process.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages666-678
    Number of pages13
    StatePublished - 2013
    Event23rd Annual International Symposium of the International Council on Systems Engineering, INCOSE 2013 - Philadelphia, PA, United States
    Duration: 24 Jun 201327 Jun 2013

    Conference

    Conference23rd Annual International Symposium of the International Council on Systems Engineering, INCOSE 2013
    Country/TerritoryUnited States
    CityPhiladelphia, PA
    Period24/06/1327/06/13

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