Probabilistic evaluations on marginal price and capacity adequacy of power systems with price-elastic demand

Jingjie Ma, Shaohua Zhang, Lei Wu, Yikui Liu, Xian Wang, Xue Li, Fei Wang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

9 Scopus citations

Abstract

An increasing deployment of smart grid technologies and demand response programs has enabled demands to be more elastic in response to electricity prices, actively contributing to power system operation. However, demand-price elasticity could potentially impact accuracy of electricity price forecasting and generation capacity adequacy evaluation, which have not been thoroughly explored in literature. To this end, a probabilistic model is developed to evaluate marginal electricity price and capacity adequacy of power systems with elastic demand, while considering uncertainties of both demand and supply sides (e.g., random outages of generating units with multi-bidding-segments as well as variability of renewable energy outputs). Specifically, based on the concept of marginal bidding segment, the probability of a bidding segment being marginal is computed via the probabilistic production simulation approach. Accordingly, the discrete probability distribution of marginal electricity price can be obtained, which is further used to calculate mean and variance of marginal electricity price with elastic demand. Moreover, considering the interaction between elastic demands and uncertain electricity prices, the loss-of-load probability and the expected unserved energy are further estimated. Numerical studies are presented to validate effectiveness of the proposed method.

Original languageEnglish
Article number107045
JournalElectric Power Systems Research
Volume194
DOIs
StatePublished - May 2021

Keywords

  • Capacity adequacy
  • Demand-price elasticity
  • Marginal price
  • Probabilistic evaluation

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Probabilistic evaluations on marginal price and capacity adequacy of power systems with price-elastic demand'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this