Space architecture marketability analysis Framework (SAMAF): A case study in cislunar space transportation

This paper develops a Space Architecture Marketability Analysis Framework (SAMAF) that analyzes the marketability of Commercially-available Off The Shelf (COTS) logistical elements for space mission architectures. As an example case study, SAMAF is applied to evaluate standardized modular COTS In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) systems in the context of a lunar mission campaign. Marketability parameters of the COTS ISRU such as the first unit specific cost [$/kg], the production learning rate, and the mass [kg] of a single ISRU unit are fed as inputs to SAMAF which optimizes the lunar architecture, evaluates its total cost, and determines the optimal number of purchased ISRU units. With sensitivity analysis, we identify the conditions on the marketability parameters under which a decision maker would benefit by purchasing standardized COTS ISRU systems instead of designing a dedicated one-of-a-kind system. SAMAF can be used by space mission designers to not only identify the optimal role of commercial players in a space mission design, but also design a space campaign where COTS elements can be leveraged optimally in terms of marketability, and thus stimulate future space commercialization.