System Dynamics Modeling of the STEM Education and Outreach Career Pipeline

Developing initiatives promoting science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEMs) career opportunities for K-12 and postsecondary students can bolster student success and provide societal benefits. A novel system dynamics model of an outreach influenced education to workforce careerization pipeline based on the endogenous professionalization theory is presented. The emergent framework incorporates outreach activities and stakeholders into a feedback-rich education ecosystem model focused on student self-perception and beliefs on a journey toward potential STEM careers, highlighting the effects of mentorship, role models, peer groups, self-perception, and self-efficacy on student progression through academic and career entry milestones. Verification and validation of the modeling framework were performed against real-world survey data of current STEM professionals gathered to identify the stages of the career pipeline, along with catalytic influences and demographic data. Sensitivity analysis through simulation was performed to generate simulation outputs correlated with pipeline transition waveforms extracted from survey data. This robust modeling and simulation representation of real-world data enables credible counterfactual analysis and optimization of proposed educational outreach efforts. The improved mechanistic understanding attained through this framework development effort led to actionable stakeholder recommendations. Shifting focus of outreach programs to mentorship activities, promoting project-based learning with a resilience focus, encouraging beneficial peer group and role model effects, and maximizing participation in near-peer mentorship programs all emerged as preferred strategies, particularly for students from underrepresented backgrounds.