The influence of follower reactions on political leaders’ environmental policy communication: toward a social-mediated dynamic influence framework

This study proposes that social-mediated leadership communication is a dynamic influence process, involving visible leader communications, follower emotional responses, and subsequent leader actions. These interactions form a feedback loop, where follower reactions influence leaders' strategic communication. We tested this framework by analyzing U.S. political leaders' engagement with the Green New Deal during the 2020 Presidential campaign. Using Facebook posts from congressional politicians and data on follower reactions, we applied longitudinal network models, natural language processing, and multilevel event history models to examine factors behind leaders' decisions to co-share content and discuss specific policy topics. Our findings support the dynamic influence framework, showing that follower reactions, especially those indicating support and boosting message virality, are most likely to prompt shifts in leaders’ communication strategies.