Understanding System Level Impacts of Orbital Debris Management Using Empirical Dynamic Modeling

Orbital debris is a pressing problem which presents a danger to global space operations and a barrier to continued development of the space economy and space infrastructure. As research continues regarding orbital debris, there is a need for tools to understand the systemlevel implications of orbital debris solutions. This research considers the orbital debris problem as a dynamic process. Based on dynamic system theories, time-series variables of the numbers of orbital debris, orbital objects, and rocket launches are causally linked, which means they share a common system attractor manifold. We propose a method based on complexity science to reconstruct a shadow attractor of the dynamic system using limited observable variables. The reconstructed shadow attractor helps us to understand the fundamental system dynamics for orbital debris and enables us to simulate the future of the orbital debris system based on changes to policy. These findings represent a significant advancement in our ability to understand high level impacts of space system policy with limited data available.